The following report by Trevor Tombe at the Hub, examines the potential employment consequences for Canada if the 50% U.S. tariffs on selected Canadian exports take effect and remain in place. Its central argument is that the tariffs could have much larger and more geographically widespread effects on employment than their relatively modest impact on Canada’s overall GDP would suggest.
Although the tariffs cover only a relatively small portion of Canadian exports to the United States, the author estimates that they could ultimately put more than 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk – roughly 52,000 directly and another 35,000 indirectly through suppliers and service providers. This could raise Canada’s unemployment rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points, from 6.4% to about 6.8%, under the report’s assumptions.
A key finding is that the provinces most directly exposed to the tariffs are not necessarily the provinces that bear all of the employment losses. Because the tariffs target only certain products, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia face the greatest direct exposure, while Alberta, Saskatchewan and much of Atlantic Canada are less affected. However, the economic consequences would spread through national supply chains. Reduced exports would also hurt transportation, warehousing, wholesale trade, and professional services, even where those sectors are not directly subject to tariffs.
The tariffs may have a modest national GDP impact, but their employment effects could be significant and widely distributed across Canada, the report concludes:
Read full report here.
