After the U.S. electronic logging device (ELD) mandate is fully implemented at the end of this year, truck utilization could climb to 100%, squeezing capacity and creating demand for as many as 60,000 additional drivers.<\/p>\n
Such a scenario, outlined by industry forecaster FTR in a State of Freight Webinar called Preparing for the ELD future<\/em>, suggested the industry will take a further productivity hit as some operators struggle to comply with the mandate and leave the industry.<\/p>\n As reported by Truck News, FTR transportation economist Noel Perry expressed doubts the industry can fill the void that quickly.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe we can\u2019t, so there\u2019s going to be pressure on capacity until they catch up, some time late in the year,\u201d Perry said.<\/p>\n Such hiring spikes have been required before, most notably in 2004 and 2014.<\/p>\n In 2004, spot market prices rose 15% and contract prices climbed 10%, thanks to a productivity hit incurred by new hours-of-service rules coupled with strong freight demand. In 2014, spot market prices rose 11% and contract rates 4%. One week in 2014 saw spot market prices rise 20% as capacity utilization was at its max.<\/p>\n Already, trucking capacity on the spot market is \u201cscary tight,\u201d Perry said, citing data from Truckstop.com and its loads-to-trucks ratio.<\/p>\n While predicting the full impact of the ELD is far from certain, Perry estimated an over-the-road truck that\u2019s maximizing its hours could see a 5-8% productivity hit. Perry also noted about 40% of U.S. fleets are currently already using ELDs and will have worked through any hit to their productivity.<\/p>\n Perry said the maximum effect of the regulation will occur sometime in late 2018, \u201cassuming reasonable enforcement\u201d of the law.<\/p>\n \u201cThe effect at the peak, we think will be 2.5-2.7%, which doesn\u2019t seem like much, but when you consider 3 to 3.5 million trucks and you take 2.5% of that, it equals somewhere around 60,000-70,000 trucks using crude math.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" After the U.S. electronic logging device (ELD) mandate is fully implemented at the end of this year, truck utilization could climb to 100%, squeezing capacity and creating demand for 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