{"id":1650,"date":"2014-11-11T22:10:35","date_gmt":"2014-11-11T22:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/truck-carriers-voice-sustained-optimism-in-freight-market\/"},"modified":"2025-01-10T16:52:03","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T16:52:03","slug":"truck-carriers-voice-sustained-optimism-in-freight-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/truck-carriers-voice-sustained-optimism-in-freight-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Truck Carriers Voice Sustained Optimism in Freight Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ontario carriers\u2019 optimistic outlook on freight volumes and rates expectedly came back down to earth, but overall, continued bullishness from Ontario\u2019s diversified trucking industry is being sustained by a stable transportation market within Canada and south of the border.<\/p>\n

In the Ontario Trucking Association\u2019s fourth quarter 2014 survey of business conditions for the bellwether sector, carrier opinion on the North American freight environment (Intra-Ontario, inter-provincial, southbound US, northbound US) remains buoyant,\u00a0 albeit somewhat tempered from the unprecedented highs expressed in the last 2Q survey<\/a>. At any rate, as 2014 comes to a close, there is clearly a sustained level of optimism in the air and the post-recessionary skepticism that hovered for years over the industry is in the rearview mirror for most carriers.<\/p>\n

Freight Volumes<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b>Nearly half of carriers (47%) said intra-Ontario freight volumes improved in the previous three months \u2013 a six point jump from the 2Q survey. Carriers who reported lower volumes within the province sank to all-time low of 3%. Intra-provincially, carriers who say volumes increased were down six points from last quarter\u2019s high of 59%, but it\u2019s still the second highest level since 2011.<\/p>\n

Reports of increased freight volumes for southbound US lanes were down by 10 points, but at 55%, it\u2019s still double the rate of carriers who said the same thing a year ago in the 4Q 2013 survey and five times more than the end of 2012. Remarkably, for the second straight survey, no one reported decreased U.S. volumes \u2013 the first time ever that\u2019s happened and an obvious indication Canadian carriers are aided from an improved U.S. economy. Northbound from the U.S., reports of advanced volumes tapered off to 38% from last quarter\u2019s all-time high of 62%. The 48% who this time indicated no change in volumes is consistent with typical averages for this category. \"truck-dollarsign\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Looking ahead, 29% of carriers expect improved volumes over the next six months \u2013 about half as many who said the same in 2Q, but consistent with the 4Q13 rate. Nearly 70% said volumes are unchanged, while those who predict less freight is still barely measurable at 3%. Intra provincially, the 40% who expect an uptick is also lower by nearly half, but still 10% higher than the same period last year. The number of carriers who forecasted a boost in southbound freight was also down by 20 points (73% to 53%), but double the rate of 4Q13. Once again, not a single carrier expects southbound volumes to slip at the start of 2015. Over half of respondents expect northbound volumes to remain unchanged (53%), but the number of carriers who predicted more freight for these lanes was largely down from this past summer (61% to 33%).<\/p>\n

Rates <\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/b>Carriers\u2019 recent characterizations of a stronger rate environment continued to varying degrees, but in some cases were expectedly more moderate than the 2Q survey\u2019s exceptional highs. Within Ontario, however, 45% of respondents expected price hikes \u2013 the highest ever recorded \u2013 and 14% more than the last survey. No carrier surveyed expects decreases either within Ontario or throughout the other provinces. Inter-provincially, those who expect increases was unchanged from 2Q (47%). Expectations for higher southbound pricing dipped to 45% of carriers, down from the record high of 62%, but still the second highest ever. More than half (52%) foresee unchanged rates, a reflection of bolstering confidence in pricing stability. Northbound, 33% expect increases (-11%) and there\u2019s a slight increase in those who expect lower rates, but that\u2019s still only 13% of carriers.<\/p>\n

Capacity<\/b><\/p>\n

The effect of sustained volume increases along with a worsening driver shortage continues to squeeze capacity. Expectations remain largely unchanged for 45% of respondents, but only 27% have experienced capacity increases over the last quarter. Looking ahead, 84% of carriers either don\u2019t expect change (42%) or expect further tightening (42%). Still, 82% say customer contract timeframes are not lengthening, despite all the warnings of driver shortages and documented shipper concerns over truck service availability. On that note, most carriers (59%) insist they plan to add drivers; although, if recent trends are any indication, the majority of these additions are motivated by replacement demand, not expansion.<\/p>\n

Carrier Costs<\/b><\/p>\n

The challenge of at least maintaining capacity levels is leading many carriers to increase wages for drivers, adding to what is already their largest cost. In the 4Q14 survey, 78% indicate driver pay is rising with about 10% of those respondents reporting raises in the 10% range \u2013 more than the previous high in 2011. It\u2019s also clear that next generation, clean emission trucks and all the added safety and environmental technology is increasing the cost of new equipment. More than two-thirds (71%) of carriers report truck price hikes in the 5-10% range \u2013 a steep ascension from the 42% who said the same thing this time last year.\u00a0Fuel remains a huge expense (about 9 in 10 carriers report increases of some sort). Thankfully, only 6% of carriers report fuel price increases in the 15%-plus range \u2013 expectedly\u00a0 much lower than the 38% who indicated extreme price hikes during last year\u2019s brutal winter.<\/p>\n

Top Concerns<\/b><\/p>\n

The driver shortage prevails as the top concern for carriers (55%). Capacity\/rates was the second-highest reason for concern (21%). Only 18% stated the economy was their number one reason for alarm, nearly half as many (30%) who were most worried about the economy at the end of 2013.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ontario carriers\u2019 optimistic outlook on freight volumes and rates expectedly came back down to earth, but overall, continued bullishness from Ontario\u2019s diversified trucking industry is being sustained by a stable…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":247,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,28],"tags":[165,30,89,40,166,167,168,79,169,170],"class_list":["post-1650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-conditions","category-labour-hr-driver-shortage","tag-business-expectations","tag-capacity","tag-costs","tag-cross-border","tag-freight-rates","tag-freight-volumes","tag-fuel-prices","tag-nafta","tag-new-trucks","tag-trucking"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1650\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cantruck.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}