The driver shortage that’s been plaguing over-the-road, for-hire truckload carriers for at least the last 15 years reached a new high in the US last year, according to Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations.
By the end of 2018, 60,800 more drivers than available were needed to meet the demand to haul freight, Costello stated in a press release highlighting ATA’s latest report on the shortage.
In the report, Costello explains that the shortage rose higher last year (it stood at roughly 50,700 by 2017) thanks largely to robust freight volumes. “Over the past 15 years, we’ve watched the shortage rise and fall with economic trends, but it ballooned last year to the highest level we’ve seen to date
He said the combination of a “surging freight economy” and carriers’ need for qualified drivers could “severely disrupt the supply chain” going forward.
“The  increase in the driver shortage should be a warning to carriers, shippers and policymakers,” Costello stated, “because if conditions don’t change substantively, our industry could be short just over 100,000 drivers in five years and 160,000 drivers in 2028.”
In a conference call with trade media, Costello explained that ATA’s analysis of the shortage is based on a trend-line forecast, reports HDT.
“That means it’s based on where thing stand now not changing” in the next several years. “The forecast is made assuming there will be the same demographics and it also assume there will be no changes in regulations for drivers.”
He noted that industry efforts such as raising driver pay are helping combat the shortage. “The industry is growing drivers, but not fast enough.”
Costello said that while women make up nearly 47% of all U.S. workers, they only comprise 6.6% of all truck drivers, according to the Department of Labor. He said the share of female drivers has remained “fairly stagnant,” between 4.5% and 6.6% since 2000. “This is a large, untapped portion of the population… Some trucking companies have put an emphasis on female drivers, but the highest percentage of female drivers we have seen is around 20% for those fleets.”
In the report, he outlines a range of solutions, most of which are already being deployed by various fleets, including
- Driver pay increases
- More at-home time
- Improved driver image
- Better treatment and reduced wait times (at shippers)
- Transitioning military personnel to truck driving
- Lowering the age for interstate operation
“Over the next decade,” the report states, “the trucking industry will need to hire roughly 1.1 million new drivers, or an average of nearly 110,000 per year.
The report also delivers this blunt assessment: “The driver shortage is really a problem for the entire supply chain as 71.4% of all freight tonnage is moved on the nation’s highways.”
Full story here.